At 8,000 plus theaters AMC is America’s biggest theater chain and it is now circling the drain. It is as of this writing trading at about $2 a share. It had already slashed its dividends before the crisis broke making it a particularly bad risk. They are not in a position to go to the debt market in any serious way. Even if the Quarantine is lifted soon I strongly suspect they will file for bankruptcy by the end of 2020.
The second largest at 7,000 plus theaters is Regal, which is owned by Cineworld. The market has more confidence in Cineworld because its holdings are worldwide. However, even they have admitted that if the quarantine is extended they will have a debt breech.
At 4,500 theaters Cinemark is in third place but looks to be in the best position to ride this out. They had 479 million in cash at the start of March. They have been ruthless in cutting expenses and salaries, suspended 42 million in dividend payments. They still look like a decent risk on the debt market.
My predictions about the fall of theater exhibition of motion pictures were wrong. The market is hurt and rather badly but it is likely to survive.
ASSUMING that my prediction about film studios shifting their resources away from making just a few high budget tent pole films, towards a mass production of medium budget projects specifically for the streaming market, is also wrong.
And I’m not certain that I did get that one wrong. Studios have missed the spring season and nobody knows just how long it’s going to take before the theaters are packed again. Maybe people will flood them as soon as the quarantine is lifted but maybe not.
People have gotten used to social distancing. The term “rubbing elbows with a stranger” is currently skin-crawling and it takes time for social mores to vanish, even newly acquired ones.
That is the biggest question mark over the future of the theater chains.
Will people go back to their old habits fast enough for them to survive?
4 thoughts on “AMC Is Now a Penny Stock”
If it ends the hugging fad, I might be all for these sacrifices.
2020 could end up being the Year of the Drive-in. Before the statewide lockdown orders set in, the ones that still exist and were open were doing gangbusters business. Of course even they had to make adjustments, such as double-spacing cars and going to online apps for food ordering (like all theaters, they live or die on concession sales). I believe West Michigan still has one or two, right?
Even BEFORE the Chinese flu came to town, theaters became havens for 13 year old girls who check their cellphone Twitter feed every 7 minutes DURING the movie, with brightness turned up to full blast. If I had the liquidity to short the shit out of all of the above chains, I would do it even though they’ve dropped into the basement. Surviving is debatable, but decent profitability isn’t. Put a fork in this industry.
When most living rooms have a 40″ inch screen or bigger, and Hollywood churns out dog-crap on the regular…why do movie theaters still exist?
My old habits would be not going to the theater unless Studio Ghibli has a new release, so yes, I probably will!
Even the now teenage Daughter Product isn’t keen on watching movies on theaters, unless it’s with a gaggle of friends. Spot on, Chief, but in her defense, she has no cellphone, does not want one, and encourages her friends to set theirs aside and do something interesting.