Cataline’s Take on the Polls

Biden’s lead in the polls is a comfortable one and has been that way for months.

In fact, he has maintained that lead over Trump since before he had been chosen as the Democrats candidate. * Going back to October of 2019, that substantial lead over Trump was there. Back before COVID when the economy was setting all kinds of records for employment, and at long last, massive salary increases. Trump was achieving every foreign policy goal we’ve had for the past 50 years. Ending a Cold War in North Korea and a hot war in Afghanistan.

And still Biden had this massive lead. This means one of two things.

One; the polls have always been accurate.

It is after all in the polling companies’ best interests to make their polls as accurate as possible. And the truth is they have a decent record for doing so. I certainly didn’t want to believe in Obama’s poll lead in 2012 but it was real. Despite all of his failures, Obama was re-elected president.

Which meant that the Democrats had finally imported enough voters to permanently shift things their way. Plus, Old Farts stick together. Doddering, senile, Gropey-Grandpa Joe was clearly one of their own. They are the only people left who still watch the News and the News is openly and monolithically against Trump in a way that I’ve never seen in my life. The Elderly are easily confused and easily frightened. “Trump will take away all your medicine and doctors and you’ll DIE!” They are the Perfect Democrats.

If the polls are accurate then Trump’s exceptional performance always meant nothing. He was doomed from the start.

Two; The polls have always been wrong.

On the face of it, this looks rather unlikely. It is in their long term best interests to be as accurate as possible. No one cares for an Oracle whose prophecies are meaningless. And the polling companies claim that the reason they got 2016 wrong was that the Unlikely Voter; Great Uncle Festus who lives in a tree and hasn’t voted since 1970 turned out for Trump. But they claim they have adjusted for this.

They can’t adjust for this.

It’s not possible to predict if an unlikely voter is or is not going to turn out again. They are by their very nature a statistical anomaly.

Also, that’s not the reason they got the last election wrong.

I saw on some old Boomer’s blog that Biden soared to a double-digit lead after having won the debate. It was filled with the usual Boomer self-satisfaction.

Question: In what fucking universe, did Joe Biden will that debate?

Of course, the Media says he won, the Media has claimed that every Democrat has won every debate for the past 60 years. BUT that night on Twitter the Left was telling a very different story. There was rage at Chris Wallace for being an effective moderator. There was rage at Biden for not being able to dominate Trump as he had Paul Ryan. And the real tell, “Google searches in the U.S. for the terms “move to Canada” and “how to move to Canada” skyrocketed last night, hitting their peak at around 10 p.m. Eastern time, right as the two candidates were locked in their grim battle.”

Despite a clear and resounding loss, Biden snapped up five points on top of his comfortable lead, giving him an insurmountable lead.

Yet, this makes no sense. The number makes no sense. I have never in my life seen a candidate with less support than Joe Biden. “Too old, too familiar, and too tainted by a thousand shabby deals.” When he holds a rally even the Old Farts (his core voters) can’t be bothered to show up.

Conversely, I’ve never seen a candidate with more support than Donald Trump. This is a man whose supporters have invented the Flash Rally. Motorcades that popup out of nowhere and attract at least hundreds (some claim thousands but nobody is getting accurate numbers). River rallies where boaters parade in support of the God-Emperor. And my very favorite an Amish horse and buggy rally. ** This is on top of official rallies that oversell by about 500%.

If an incumbent candidate was failing then we should have seen some strong indications of a loss of core voter support. Significantly undersold rallies. A lot of regret-voters changing sides, (I haven’t run into anyone who has said, “I voted for Trump last time and that’s a mistake I’ll never make again.” Do you know anyone who is saying that? ***

I’ve seen indications that his base is growing. He’s attracting voters that have previously identified as Democrats. Plus, soft-shell NeverTrumpers who have been won over by Trump’s performance.

When you add all these things up the polls just don’t make any sense. At the very most Biden should have the thinnest of leads. More likely he’d be significantly behind.

So, if the polls are wrong. Why?

My working theory is that it’s not so much the polling companies (although that is possible, Woke companies no longer pursue their own best interests. But the Pollsters themselves.

A big chunk of these pollsters are now Millennial Progressives. The job is attractive to them by its very nature. Enough time has gone by that a significant change in that job’s demographics has occurred since 2004. Although, Bush’s poll numbers were shaky too as I recall.

Vital question:

How do Millennial Progressives react to information they don’t like?

We all know the answer to that.

They know perfectly well where they will get the answers they find most comforting and they are going there. They are oversampling areas with strong Biden support and under-sampling those that are going for Trump.

And that is not just Cataline’s opinion. Smaller localized polling companies are claiming that that is what the “majors” are doing in their areas.

Look, guys, I’m not guaranteeing a Trump win because I’ve never seen the Left hate a candidate this much and I’ve never seen the ballot harvesting machine working so frantically sparks are flying out of it.

But I am saying the polls are no reason at all to think that Trump is losing.

As for who do I think is going to win?

Well let’s just say I’m making preparations for the November Riots.

Okay, I’m done here.

*Real Clear Politics poll tracker only goes back a year and I can’t be bothered to go back any farther. So that works out nicely.

** You want to talk about not being able to poll unlikely voters.

*** Who actually voted for Trump in the first place.

4 thoughts on “Cataline’s Take on the Polls

  1. Part of the reason the polls are the way they are is the “I don’t want to have the crap beaten out of me and harassed because I support Trump” phenomenon. This is especially true in more urban areas. Yet in some polls there is a tell on how it’s really going to go down. For instance in a Gallup poll that had Biden up by double digits, they also asked their respondents “Not including your personal preference for President, who do you think will win the election?” 56% said Trump, and in another poll, again 56% said they are better off now than they were four years ago. So if they are better off now than four years ago, why are they going to vote for the guy who was VP four years ago? Doesn’t make sense. You’re correct in pointing out how fast they are ginning up the ballot harvesting. If it was a cakewalk, then they wouldn’t need to do this. Plus, if it was a blow out, why would Biden need to campaign in Nevada, Minnesota, and other states Hillary won in 2016? Sorry for the rant, great post.

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  2. If I didn’t totally dismiss polls before 2016, I would have after the “Hillary has a 98.5% chance of winning” nonsense of that year. Just absurd.

    Aside from that, they’re not acting like they think they’re winning. Pelosi wouldn’t be pushing the 25th Amendment nonsense if she thought Trump would be out of office in a few months.

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  3. My guess is part of it is the standard polling trend of “the Democrat candidate has a commanding lead” until you get closer to the election. This time though they’re going with the fiction until the very end. It will play into their narrative of cheating and foreign interference if Trump wins.

    The other thing is people are ignoring pollsters in vast numbers and people are lying to them.

    One thing that mitigates against the pollsters being wrong and suffering a business hit? The woke corporations and political organizations will still hire them because they took one for the team.

    Shortest explanation, we are facing the largest gaslighting campaign ever imagined.

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