No, I’m Not Worried About…

I’m not worried about the stock market. It was over due for a correction anyway. After Corona dies out the markets will correct. I am a little worried about the damage to US domestic oil production. The price won’t stay below $40 a barrel but while it is, a lot of US producers are going to be hurt.

I’m not worried about the Corona virus.

Yes, it’s deadly in .06 percent of those who contract it. And that is a pretty high number when death is on the line but likely this will burn out by the end of summer.

I am a little worried about the spiral of panic of that Corona is generating. Truth be said, I haven’t seen this kind of panic in my life time. This is the the first plague that has come along since the arrival of social media. Twitter is not only a sewer of self-important illiteracy and instant career fuckage. But it is really great at acting as an accelerant for public hysteria. It’s like throwing gas on dry brittle wood that is already on fire.

Past a certain point, the destruction caused by the panic is worse than the destruction caused by the disease itself. You don’t have to actually kill a quarter of the population to bring civilization to a halt.

5 thoughts on “No, I’m Not Worried About…

  1. From what I’ve heard 4-6% is too high. That is of the people that are sick enough to to report themselves. Many get it and have minimal if any symptoms. Not reported, so they are not counted or tested. That would artificially screw the fatality rate higher. Also, put this in perspective to the 18,000 to 80,000 that can die from the regular flu annually.

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  2. For what it’s worth, the health system I work for is taking the COVID-19 outbreak seriously, but realistically. No one actually seems to know much about the detailed particulars of the virus and its effects, but they seem pretty confident with the 4-6% mortality rate.

    The major concern in our health system was never really the actual virus, but the total and complete lack of preparedness of our national healthcare system in general. For example, pur hospital is one of the largest in the state and yet we only have 15 ICU beds available for COVID-19 related care. And that’s almost twice as many as the next closest hospital has. Also, many hospitals are already running out of masks, gloves, and goggles/face shields, and we can’t order any more because they all come from China.

    TLDR, I agree with your assessment, Cataline. The danger isn’t in the corona virus itself, it’s in the potential catastrophic breakdown of our supply chains caused by both a lack of preparedness and twatter-inflamed panic.

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  3. The 1918 Spanish Flu had a mortality rate of 2.5%. They say worldwide about 50 million dead (17-100m range). That was before anti-virals and antibiotics. If this flu has 4-6% mortality…. wow.

    The lack of surge capacity and supplies for our hospitals should be a concern for any kind of mass casualty event. Especially epidemics where the healthcare providers can easily become a casualty.

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    1. Keep in mind though, that that 4-6% mortality rate is only out of the confirmed cases. I don’t recall the extrapolated percentage of COVID-19 cases that go untested and unreported due to minor symptoms, but I seem to remember it was pretty high, something like 80%. So the actual mortality rate for COVID-19 is lower than 4-6%.

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