At the moment, Trump’s reelection looks to be a near certainty. He is a sitting president, the economy is great and there is no credible opponent up for election. The frantic throwing of last-minute hats in the ring is proof enough of the Democrat’s terror of their prospects at the polls.
And winning presidents tend to have long coattails in congress. Even with the map against us this time, the majority in the Senate is likely to be expanded by a couple of seats.
The biggest issue at the back of everyone’s mind is the timing of when Ginsberg kicks the bucket.
You don’t go to Johns Hopkins hospital for “fever and possible infection.”
You go to Johns Hopkins for cancer.
Her liver stent is failing.
I foresee three possible scenarios for the most ferocious SCOTUS battle in history.
The worst case is her immediate death. There are three very unreliable votes in the Senate GOP. Murkowski, Collins, and Romney.
Murkowski is a Democrat who came in the wrong door, the same goes for Collins. Romney is a resentful backstabbing little shit, who hates Trump for doing what he couldn’t, namely, connect with American people. Romney is likely to vote against any Trump appointee “on principle.” The press will praise him to the rafters for it and Romney wants more than anything to be loved. An excellent trait in an emotional support dog but not in a statesman.
In this case the Gang of Three vetos a couple of first-rate choices demanding Trump appoint someone “middle of the of road.”
You can tell, they are Democrats in their deepest hearts because they can’t foresee the consequences of their own actions. It benefits Trump mightily to double down and appoint someone even more ferocious.
However, there are other scenarios. Collins is looking weak for re-election at the moment and may decide she doesn’t care what Maine thinks anymore. Romney is a fundamentally weak man. He can likely be pressured out of party loyalty so long as it’s not Trump twisting his arm. The most unreliable vote in the Senate has been Lisa Murkowski although she has always voted with Trump on administrative appointments like Barr and Sec Def.
My point is this, if only one of the Gang of Three votes for Trump’s appointee to SCOTUS, then Mike Pence can throw in the tiebreaker.
One way or another Trump is going to be appointing the next Supreme Court Justice before election night.