Captain Marvel Projected Opening

Well it started tracking  at $140 million, which frankly was a rosy as predictions go.

Now it’s down to $100 million, give or take $20 million.  Largely I suspect this has a lot to do with the shocking arrogant and rather vicious public statements of Brie Larson.  She was hired at $5 million which is an impressive first paycheck.  It strongly indicates that Disney/Marvel wants her to be a the masthead of the post Infinity Wars Marvelverse.

The problem is that you can’t really buy your percentage for a masthead. The audience has to find either the actor or the character likable.

Jack Sparrow worked (at first) because everyone liked the goofy, spacey pirate and Depp himself was having one of his rare sober periods in the early 00s.

Robert Downey has always had charisma but after he had gotten clean he had the kind of story that everyone likes, the comeback story.

In the first case the character overshadowed the actor and in the second, the actor overshadowed the character.  Neither of these elements will be in play for Captain Marvel.

I’ve been pretty neutral about most of the superhero movies.  I’ve enjoyed a few and have been only mildly entertained by others.  But here’s the thing; I don’t recall ever rooting for one to fail before and now I am.  I will be pleased as punch if Captain Marvel tanks. I’ve never felt that way about a superhero movie before and it’s entirely due to the lead actress screaming at me over her politics.

I am at this point wondering if the Left Leaning Deathroll is in play here.  If you want example of the LLD, it is when a product is doomed to fail so the guy in charge of it goes as far Left as possible to make himself a hero.

When Chris Chibnall was made the new showrunner of Doctor Who, I suspect he said, “yes,” without thinking about it.  But then when he finally got down to the business of looking at brass tacks he discovered that he taken custody of a champion race horse…that was on it’s last legs.

There really wasn’t anything more that could be done with the series.  The glory days of David Tennent were long over.  Moffat while having had moments of absolute genius during the Russell T  Davies tenure, had clearly run out of ideas during his own. Moffats various attempts to revitalize the show, severly weakened  long standing narrative constraints and precepts which further debiliated a show that was already running out of steam.

For example when the reboot opened the Doctor absolutely hated and feared the Daleks.  He was pretty kumbaya about every other species in existence but he had genocided his entire race in order to wipe the Daleks out. Then Moffat brought back a new Dalek empire that the Doctor wasn’t frightened off.  Then he reversed the genocide of the Time Lords but then went with the half measure of walling them off again.  Moffat was clearly so bored by and disengaged with the Doctor that he basically turned Doctor Who into the Clara Oswald Show.

When Chibnall agreed to head the show, he quickly discovered that the patient couldn’t be saved, which meant that he needed to ensure that at least he wouldn’t get blamed for it’s inevitable death.

Doctor Who had always been pretty Lefty but it has never beaten you over the head with it’s politics and suddenly it does, each and every week.

When the show does get canceled, Chibnall and the BBC will claim that they were punished for telling truth to power in the age of Trump. Rather than having to say, sorry there was nothing I could. If you are a Hero of the Resistance you will always get a new job.  If you are some shmuck who just couldn’t turn things around you won’t.

This is the Left Leaning Deathroll.

I am beginning to suspect that that is what is in play with Captain Marvel.

 

However, here is Grace Randolph with a different view.  While I don’t agree with her politics she does provide a decent explanation as to how film tracking is done.

 

 

 

 

3 thoughts on “Captain Marvel Projected Opening

  1. I’ve been pretty neutral about most of the superhero movies. I’ve enjoyed a few and have been only mildly entertained by others.

    My story is similar: of superhero flicks of the last decade or so, I enjoyed Iron Man (2008), Deadpool (2016), and Guardians of the Galaxy (2014.) Was mildly entertained by some of their sequels, as well as the first Avengers movie (2012.)

    Maybe I was only “mildly entertained” by Deadpool, since I never bothered with the sequel. Nor have I tried to see the Avengers sequels. If I give superheroes one more go, I will probably be either a third G. of the G. movie (if one is made), or this year’s upcoming Shazam!, a film which, from the trailers, looks like it wants to be the “Deadpool” for the PG crowd.

    Oh, and this almost goes without saying, but I couldn’t care less about Captain Marvel. Even it were about the Kree Captain (Mar-Vell), I’d probably just wait until it showed up on a streaming service.

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  2. The adverts on stupidvision don’t show anything just that the movie will be out March 8th. While comic book movies are not my hill to die on I do find the origination stories to be fascinating. That is why I have put off watching the Wakanda one because I fear being disappointed and same with dippy Brie.

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  3. Projections are now ranging from 100-120MM. But what I’m really curious to see are the numbers going forward, as that’s where the poison pill will be. I think what will happen here will be an exaggerated version of what happened to TLJ. The opening weekend will be disappointing, albeit not dramatically, but will be followed by absolutely disastrous numbers going forward. Everybody buying into the hype train — SJWs and die hard dorks — will go see it the first week, but Larson poisoned the well with the average fan and the Chinese have no patience for Baizuo nonsense.

    Larson can give me the tough girl frowny face all she wants – I’m not buying it.

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