Cataline shall now quote Cataline:
Netflix owned 100% of the streaming market, which means anyone getting into the streaming business is going to be cutting into Netflix’s market share. They just posted their first quarterly loss of customers since their price hike debacle and it wasn’t a small one. Disney, Amazon, Apple, Warner Media, MGM (yeah they still exist), YouTube Red, CBS and (now that Disney has muscled them out of Hulu), NBC-Universal will all have streaming services next year. And this isn’t even counting small fry streamers like Funimation and Shudder. Hell, there’s this guy who runs a far right blog and he’s gotten into streaming with this thing called Unauthorized.TV (Give the link a click. It’s worth a look, trust me on this point).
2020 is going to be a watershed year for Netflix… Or rather a customer shed year. Twenty-five of their top fifty shows are going to be gone and everybody is going to be eating their lunch.
Having kicked the tires on Disney Plus for about a week, it’s clear that this product is meant for the hardcore Disneyphile. Some of the back titles like Darby O’Gill and the Little People (featuring a singing Sean Connery) are pretty obscure generally but are well known in D23 circles. Others like 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea are better known. The 1970s family comedies are all there, (I think).
While Marvel and Star Wars content is available, the only thing that is generating any real interest, that you can’t get anywhere else is, The Mandalorian, (saw the second episode, still good BTW).
Disney Plus is looking like a specialty channel for a specialty market. Now, it’s a decent market but it’s not going to dethrone Netflix anytime soon. Although, Netflix’s death of a thousand cuts will begin in earnest about the middle of next year.
One thing that I’m curious about is how will the fractalization of mass entertainment affect the market as a whole?
First, Actors are going to lose both influence (what little they had) as well as their paychecks. There will likely be a few A-Lister lottery winners but given that the pool of acting jobs will expand, their salaries will be driven down across the board as name recognition comes to mean about as much as the average Instagram Influencer. The movie star is a holdover from the 20th century and won’t survive much past 2050.
Second, Entertainment revenue is likely to decrease across the board. Seventy million people watched the opening of Disneyland in 1955. Disney Plus was high-fiving themselves with an opening of ten million subscribers. 2020 starts in a month and a half, by 2030 the entertainment market will be almost unrecognizable.
Third, there will be a rightwing entertainment venue. The market pressure is there and has always been there but the studios became resistant to pandering to this market in the 1970s with the rise and entrenchment of the Boomer “Baby Moguls.” The Entertainment Oligopoly is no longer supportable in this new world. Market pressure will likely have its way. Heck, there is already a couple of channels out there.
Although, there is also possibility of a ‘Foxnews scenario.” One large rightwing entertainment venue and a myriad of small fry on the leftwing fighting it out among themselves for an ever decreasing market share
And naturally, there is also the possibility of a crackdown on Rightwing entertainment from Washington.
Always in motion is the future.
Okay, I’m done here.